Why the Kerry Campaign Doesn't Suck
Wed Sep 15, 2004 at 03:56:22 AM PDT
Ben P put up a diary last night arguing that the Kerry campaign sucked. After
RedDan and I hammered him a bit, mainly for his tone of hopelessness and his tone that volunteering didn't matter, he took the diary down.
Since he's not the only one around here who seems to feel this way, let me try to explain why I think he's dead wrong.
Bush Invades
Mon Sep 13, 2004 at 01:52:12 PM PDT
The fall campaign just began. Bush staged his first invasion of Kerry territory today when he went after Kerry on health care. Here's some of Bush's attack:
"I'm running against a fellow who has got a massive, complicated blueprint to have our government take over the decision-making in health care."
Texans for Truth
Mon Sep 13, 2004 at 07:35:29 AM PDT
Ron Brownstein
reveals today that
Texans for Truth raised $400,000 in the 72 hours after it unveiled its first commercial last week.
He also notes that "the group may both expand the buy for that initial ad and air others questioning different aspects of Bush's Guard record."
I'd suggest that folks might want to consider kicking a few bucks to Texans for Truth. When there are so many more important issues, why should we be talking about the events of 30 years ago? Read on.
Close Election Calculus
Sat Sep 11, 2004 at 08:35:05 PM PDT
To begin, an important note: I think it's significantly more likely than not that the election will dramatically break one way or the other in late September / early October. If that's the case, this map is irrelevant. But if the popular vote margin is within a point or so, here's the map we're likely looking at.
Close Election Calculus: Pushing the Leaners Edition
Kerry 226
Bush 227
Swing 85
LV - RV = ACT
Wed Sep 08, 2004 at 10:53:02 PM PDT
If you look at the recent
Gallup poll of Ohio, you'll see that while Bush leads by 1 point among registered voters, he leads by 8 points among likely voters.
Now what does that mean?
It means that Gallup thinks a significantly higher proportion of Bush supporters are going to show up on election day than Kerry voters.
Shakeup Roundup
Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 02:04:52 AM PDT
The Pros from Dover really are here to save the day. Here we go:
- Lockhart is the front man, replacing Devine.
- Sasso is the main guy with the candidate's ear, replacing Shrum.
- Whouley is the point man at the DNC, replacing Sasso.
- Greenberg is officially on board, and Begala has a larger role unofficially.
- Doug Sosnik is added to the inner strategy team.
- Howard Wolfson is added to the inner communications team.
- Joel Johnson seems like he'll be playing traffic cop.
Joe Lockhart !!!
Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 06:33:11 AM PDT
Thank God !!!
The Pros from Dover are in the house. I feel better already.
The Speech Disruptions
Thu Sep 02, 2004 at 07:53:03 PM PDT
I can't believe they didn't give Bush a prepared zinger to deal with disruptions. If I knew they were coming, they sure should have.
The post-game spin on this will be "interesting"...
Petey's Collected Zell-mania
Thu Sep 02, 2004 at 06:20:13 PM PDT
As we head into Bush-mania, here are some collected thoughts on the strategic insanity of Zell Miller:
From Joe Scarborough on MSNBC:
We could be looking at, God forbid, a Grey Davis strategy.
Big Kerry Ad Buy
Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 05:08:04 PM PDT
New LA Times Poll
Wed Aug 25, 2004 at 07:29:39 PM PDT
New LA Times national poll of registered voters:
Bush 49% - Kerry 46%
The trendline is Kerry 48% - Bush 46% from July 17-21.
Second Sleazy GOP 527
Tue Aug 24, 2004 at 01:17:21 AM PDT
A second sleazy GOP 527 has formed, this time to go after Johnny Edwards, instead of Kerry.
You can read all about it in this NYT story.
Triumph of BCRA
Mon Aug 23, 2004 at 02:20:24 AM PDT
Many folks seem to think BCRA (McCain/Feingold) has failed because it hasn't taken any money out of politics. But they're missing an interesting point:
This has been a very bad year for negative campaigning.
And while it may all be coincidence, it seems very possible that two BCRA provisions have been responsible for negative campaigning not working well this year.
Kerry Filing Charges with FEC over Swift Boat Liars
Fri Aug 20, 2004 at 02:18:37 PM PDT
CNN is reporting that Kerry is filing charges against the Swift Boat Veterans for Lies with the FEC.
They're charging "inaccuracies" and "illegal coordination" with the Bush campaign.
Petey's take: It's a high risk maneuver, but on balance I like this. It helps place the news focus on the fact that SBVfT is a front group for Bush.
No Governor Corzine this Year
Wed Aug 18, 2004 at 07:03:44 PM PDT
Only 24 hours after all the speculation was that McGreevy would resign in a matter of days, we get this from Noted Now:
"CORZINE SAYS HE WILL NOT RUN, ASSURING McGREEVEY WILL SERVE UNTIL NOV. 15: NJ Senator says in statement "The governor made clear in our conversation his absolute intent to serve until Nov. 15, 2004. I accept that decision as final..."
New CNN/USA Today/Gallup Ohio
Wed Aug 18, 2004 at 02:56:40 PM PDT
RV: Kerry 52 Bush 42 Undecided 6
LV: Kerry 48 Bush 46 Undecided 6
Love that Gallup LV screen...
Why Najaf Now?
Wed Aug 18, 2004 at 05:07:49 AM PDT
I find it fascinating that Team Bush is going after Sadr right now. The entire reason they scheduled the 'handover' for when they did was to take Iraq off TV screens for the election.
Now they're attacking Najaf, and Iraq is back on TV screens. What gives?
I assume the strategy is that they think it will benefit them if they can capture/kill Sadr leading into the RNC. And they may well be right about that politically.
But it's a very high-risk strategy. A lot can go wrong, and they've put those unpleasant pictures back on TV. I take it all as an indication of just how desperate Team Bush is right now.
Political TV Ad Archive
Mon Aug 16, 2004 at 08:22:16 PM PDT
This thing is absolutely
incredible. It's a reasonably encyclopedic collection of online Presidential political TV advertisements, from 1952 - 2004.
http://livingroomcandidate.movingimage.us/index.php
Not only are all the classics here:
- Eisenhower '52 High Prices
- Kennedy '60 Religion
- Johnson '64 Daisy
- Humphrey '68 Laughter
- Reagan '84 Morning in America
- Bush '88 Willie Horton
- Clinton '92 Journey
But there are also tons of obscure ads from every election. I especially recommend these interesting ones:
- Johnson '64 Confessions of a Republican
- Nixon '68 Vietnam
The internet may be amazing for organizing the base, but TV has always moved the masses.
Check out how it's done.
