Close Election Calculus

To begin, an important note:  I think it's significantly more likely than not that the election will dramatically break one way or the other in late September / early October.  If that's the case, this map is irrelevant.  But if the popular vote margin is within a point or so, here's the map we're likely looking at.

Close Election Calculus:  Pushing the Leaners Edition

Kerry 226
Bush 227
Swing 85

This map is a fancy way of saying what Dan Balz is saying in the Sunday WaPo.  Win two out of three of PA, OH, and FL, and you win the election.

More precisely, if either candidate wins PA and OH, they still need one more state to go over the top.  If a candidate wins FL and one of the two big Rust Belt states, they're already the winner.

As many have previously noted, although the horserace polls in OH have not been any better than other states I've given to Bush, the underlying numbers in OH polls make it fertile territory for Kerry.

And if I was to further push the leaners in Lutheran Land, I'd give IA to Kerry and WI to Bush.

Petey's Take:  If the election is to be decided in the Rust Belt and Florida, I like our chances.  But I still think the election is more likely to dramatically swing toward one of the two candidates over the next month.