As in the movie, Kerry's boat was a swift boat patrolling the Mekong.  And as in the movie, Kerry liked to play rock music, and once mock attacked another American boat with flares.

Kerry is Chief Phillips (the guy who gets killed with the spear).  Jim Rassmann is Martin Sheen, the special ops guy the boat is carrying upriver.

And as the Cambodia story gets unravelled, we see that just like in the movie, Kerry's boat carried guys illegally into Cambodia.

I love the smell of voting in November.  Smells like victory.

The bet is that that Bush will win Florida, but lose one or more of the following states:  Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, or Tennessee.

The payoff is 20 to 1.  That seems like damn good odds to me for this bet.  Here's how to do it:

"We actually misnamed the War on Terror. It ought to be the Struggle Against Ideological Extremists Who Do Not Believe in Free Societies Who Happen to Use Terror as a Weapon To Try To Shape The Conscience Of The Free World."

Read all about it.

As far as I'm concerned, the "Unfit for Command" slimeballs are doing Kerry a favor.  Any excuse to get Jim Rassmann into the news works to Kerry's benefit.

I cannot take credit for this map.  gengis created it by using the Tradesports state-by-state market data.  The saturation of color is determined by the odds for one candidate or the other to win that state.

I agree with Luntz that I think Kerry will win, but I'm not quite as sure yet.  I think Bush still has a month to try to change the big picture.  

Bush needs to not only make Kerry look bad, as Luntz points out, but he also needs to make himself look good.  It's not probable that they pull this off, but it is possible.

If we get through the next month with the underlying poll internals close to what they are now, my confidence level in a positive final result will grow enormously.

"The trip to Pennsylvania was just the first step on a journey leading through West Virginia and Ohio, where Mr. Edwards will fly south to visit Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas, while Mr. Kerry continues to Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. The two men will then meet up in St. Louis, appropriately enough, for a train ride to Colorado, and then on to New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California, Oregon and Washington."

http://www.georgewbush.com/News/

Bush buy is $14m/2wks.  DNC buy is $6m/1wk.  Both in about 20 states.

Some random thoughts on day 4 of this happy and confident convention.

Some random thoughts on day 3 of this happy and confident convention.

Some random thoughts on day 2 of this happy and confident convention.

"Bill Richardson, Howard Dean, Mark Warner, Wesley Clark, Joe Biden, Janet Napolitano, and--my favorite name on the list--Patrick Kennedy (!) have spoken or will speak to Iowa delegates this week."

Add Johnny Edwards, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton to the list, and I bet you've got over 75% of the serious field for the next open Democratic nomination race.

The Note is the best web roundup of political news, Stephanopolous has the best Sunday show, and Mark Halperin is the best political news director.

And now they finally have a political news cable channel on the air, although availability is spotty.  See if you're lucky enough to watch it.

For an excellent roundup of the tea leaves, check this out.

Dem 237
Rep 142
Swing 159

http://images.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2004-07/13529681.pdf

Nothing new here.  PA is in the bag and FL is a dogfight.