Triumph of BCRA

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Monday August 23, 2004 · 2:20 AM PDT

2004/08/23 · 02:20

Many folks seem to think BCRA (McCain/Feingold) has failed because it hasn't taken any money out of politics. But they're missing an interesting point:

This has been a very bad year for negative campaigning.

And while it may all be coincidence, it seems very possible that two BCRA provisions have been responsible for negative campaigning not working well this year. Read More

Kerry Filing Charges with FEC over Swift Boat Liars

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Friday August 20, 2004 · 2:18 PM PDT

2004/08/20 · 14:18

CNN is reporting that Kerry is filing charges against the Swift Boat Veterans for Lies with the FEC.

They're charging "inaccuracies" and "illegal coordination" with the Bush campaign.

Petey's take: It's a high risk maneuver, but on balance I like this. It helps place the news focus on the fact that SBVfT is a front group for Bush.

No Governor Corzine this Year

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Wednesday August 18, 2004 · 7:03 PM PDT

2004/08/18 · 19:03

Only 24 hours after all the speculation was that McGreevy would resign in a matter of days, we get this from Noted Now:

"CORZINE SAYS HE WILL NOT RUN, ASSURING McGREEVEY WILL SERVE UNTIL NOV. 15: NJ Senator says in statement "The governor made clear in our conversation his absolute intent to serve until Nov. 15, 2004. I accept that decision as final..."

New CNN/USA Today/Gallup Ohio

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Wednesday August 18, 2004 · 2:56 PM PDT

2004/08/18 · 14:56

RV: Kerry 52 Bush 42 Undecided 6
LV: Kerry 48 Bush 46 Undecided 6

Love that Gallup LV screen...

Why Najaf Now?

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Wednesday August 18, 2004 · 5:07 AM PDT

2004/08/18 · 05:07

I find it fascinating that Team Bush is going after Sadr right now. The entire reason they scheduled the 'handover' for when they did was to take Iraq off TV screens for the election.

Now they're attacking Najaf, and Iraq is back on TV screens. What gives?

I assume the strategy is that they think it will benefit them if they can capture/kill Sadr leading into the RNC. And they may well be right about that politically.

But it's a very high-risk strategy. A lot can go wrong, and they've put those unpleasant pictures back on TV. I take it all as an indication of just how desperate Team Bush is right now.

Political TV Ad Archive

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Monday August 16, 2004 · 8:22 PM PDT

2004/08/16 · 20:22

This thing is absolutely incredible. It's a reasonably encyclopedic collection of online Presidential political TV advertisements, from 1952 - 2004.

http://livingroomcandidate.movingimage.us/index.php

Not only are all the classics here:

Eisenhower '52 High Prices
Kennedy '60 Religion
Johnson '64 Daisy
Humphrey '68 Laughter
Reagan '84 Morning in America
Bush '88 Willie Horton
Clinton '92 Journey

But there are also tons of obscure ads from every election. I especially recommend these interesting ones:

Johnson '64 Confessions of a Republican
Nixon '68 Vietnam

The internet may be amazing for organizing the base, but TV has always moved the masses. Check out how it's done.

Apocalypse Kerry

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Saturday August 14, 2004 · 2:11 PM PDT

2004/08/14 · 14:11

Seen Apocalypse Now? If I understand the details correctly, that movie is an almost perfect fictionalized account of Kerry's tour of duty.

As in the movie, Kerry's boat was a swift boat patrolling the Mekong. And as in the movie, Kerry liked to play rock music, and once mock attacked another American boat with flares.

Kerry is Chief Phillips (the guy who gets killed with the spear). Jim Rassmann is Martin Sheen, the special ops guy the boat is carrying upriver.

And as the Cambodia story gets unravelled, we see that just like in the movie, Kerry's boat carried guys illegally into Cambodia.

I love the smell of voting in November. Smells like victory.

Petey's Tradesports Arbitrage

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Thursday August 12, 2004 · 5:34 PM PDT

2004/08/12 · 17:34

You've got to lock up some cash for the next 80 days, but here's a damn good opportunity:

The bet is that that Bush will win Florida, but lose one or more of the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, or Tennessee.

The payoff is 20 to 1. That seems like damn good odds to me for this bet. Here's how to do it: Read More

The Struggle Against Ideological Extremists Who Do Not Believe in Free Societies Who...

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Friday August 06, 2004 · 12:10 PM PDT

2004/08/06 · 12:10

George explains the WoT:

"We actually misnamed the War on Terror. It ought to be the Struggle Against Ideological Extremists Who Do Not Believe in Free Societies Who Happen to Use Terror as a Weapon To Try To Shape The Conscience Of The Free World."

Swift Boat Vet Retracts Affadavit

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Friday August 06, 2004 · 5:05 AM PDT

2004/08/06 · 05:05

Kerry's former commanding officer now thinks he made a mistake in signing an affadivit for the "Unfit for Command" slimeballs.

Read all about it.

As far as I'm concerned, the "Unfit for Command" slimeballs are doing Kerry a favor. Any excuse to get Jim Rassmann into the news works to Kerry's benefit.

Tradesports State Map

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Tuesday August 03, 2004 · 9:53 PM PDT

2004/08/03 · 21:53

I cannot take credit for this map. gengis created it by using the Tradesports state-by-state market data. The saturation of color is determined by the odds for one candidate or the other to win that state. Read More

Luntz Calls the Election

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Tuesday August 03, 2004 · 4:40 AM PDT

2004/08/03 · 04:40

Tom Schaller gets Frank Luntz's drunken opinion on the election.

I agree with Luntz that I think Kerry will win, but I'm not quite as sure yet. I think Bush still has a month to try to change the big picture.

Bush needs to not only make Kerry look bad, as Luntz points out, but he also needs to make himself look good. It's not probable that they pull this off, but it is possible.

If we get through the next month with the underlying poll internals close to what they are now, my confidence level in a positive final result will grow enormously.

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