Tom Schaller gets Frank Luntz's drunken opinion on the election.
I agree with Luntz that I think Kerry will win, but I'm not quite as sure yet. I think Bush still has a month to try to change the big picture.
Bush needs to not only make Kerry look bad, as Luntz points out, but he also needs to make himself look good. It's not probable that they pull this off, but it is possible.
If we get through the next month with the underlying poll internals close to what they are now, my confidence level in a positive final result will grow enormously.